MATH3085/6143: Survival Models

Welcome to MATH3085/6143: Survival Models! MATH3085/6143 introduces the fundamental concepts and key issues in lifetime and time-to-event data analysis, with applications in areas such as actuarial practice, medical sciences, and demography.

Note that MATH3085 and MATH6143 are double-badged. This means that the course content of the two modules is the same but some of the assessment differs.

The Panopto recorded lectures are available on Blackboard (links for MATH3085 and MATH6143; note that you must be logged in to access them).


🧑‍🏫 Instructors

This module will be co-taught by

  1. Dr André Amaral (a.v.ribeiro-amaral@soton.ac.uk): Chapters 1-9
  2. Dr Chao Zheng (chao.zheng@southampton.ac.uk): Chapters 10-16

For any queries, please see either of us during our office hours

  • Dr André Amaral (weeks 1-7): Tuesday, 14:00–16:00, Room 54/10007.
  • Dr Chao Zheng (weeks 8-11 and 15): Tuesday, 14:00–16:00, Room 54/9001.

📝 Assessment

The basic module assessment breakdown is

  1. 30% data analysis project
  2. 70% written exam

The data analysis project involves a series of tasks in which you will conduct survival analysis on provided datasets using R. The project will be released around mid-December 2025, and detailed instructions and guidance will be provided towards the end of the term.


📖 Lecture Notes

Lecture notes are available in two formats:

  1. Skeleton notes: containing omissions corresponding to mathematical details.
  2. Complete notes: in which the previously omitted parts are included and highlighted in blue.

Students are encouraged to use whichever version of the notes they find most helpful to their learning.


📒 Syllabus

The module content is structured into 16 chapters (with the corresponding slides updated throughout the term)

  1. Introduction
  2. Statistical Models
  3. The Survival Distribution
  4. Distributions for Survival Models
  5. Survival models: parameter estimation
  6. Non-parametric Survival Estimation
  7. Survival Regression Models
  8. Multistate Survival Models
  9. Inference for Multistate Models
  10. Modelling Human Lifetime
  11. The Life Table and Life Expectancy
  12. Interpolating a Life Table
  13. Life Table Models
  14. Exposure to Risk
  15. Comparing Mortality Rates
  16. Graduation

These chapters can be divided into six parts (labelled A to F), each corresponding to a problem sheet. The table below shows which chapters are included in each part.

Part Chapters Problem sheet
A 1-4 1
B 5-6 2
C 7 3
D 8-9 4
E 10-13 5
F 14-16 6

📆 Tentative Schedule

MATH3085/6143 has been given a timetable with the following slots

Day Time Room
Tuesday 16:00-18:00 02/1089
Thursday 15:00-17:00 35/1001

Below is the tentative schedule for the module.

Week Tuesday (Session 1) Tuesday (Session 2) Thursday (Session 1) Thursday (Session 2)
01 Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 4 (part 1)
02 Chapter 4 (part 2) Problem Sheet 1 Chapter 5 (part 1) Chapter 5 (part 2)
03 Chapter 6 (part 1) Chapter 6 (part 2) Chapter 6 (part 3) Problem Sheet 2 (part 1)
04 Problem Sheet 2 (part 2) Chapter 7 (part 1) Chapter 7 (part 2) Chapter 7 (part 3)
05 Problem Sheet 3 Chapter 8 (part 1) Chapter 8 (part 2) Chapter 8 (part 3)
06 Chapter 8 (part 4) Chapter 9 (part 1) Chapter 9 (part 2) Chapter 9 (part 3)
07 Problem Sheet 4 Chapter 10 + revision
08 Chapter 11 (part 1) Chapter 11 (part 2) Chapter 12 (part 1) Chapter 12 (part 2)
09 Chapter 13 (part 1) Chapter 13 (part 2) Chapter 13 (part 3) Chapter 13 (part 4)
10 Problem Sheet 5 (part 1) Problem Sheet 5 (part 2) Chapter 14 Chapter 15
11 Chapter 16 (part 1) Chapter 16 (part 2) Problem Sheet 6 (part 1) Problem Sheet 6 (part 2)
15 Revision Class (part 1) Revision Class (part 1)

Weeks 1-7 will be taught by Dr André Amaral, and weeks 8-11 and 15 will be taught by Dr Chao Zheng.